lundi 15 mars 2010

On y est... Moody's menace de supprimer le AAA des USA

More Empty Posturing Out Of Moody's - Rating Agency Once Again Threatens With US Downgrade
ZeroHedge, 15/03/2010 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
The ten-year outlook included in the budget for the federal government shows a continuous rise in the ratios of debt to GDP and interest to revenue (despite some decline in the ratio of debt to revenue). By the end of the period, debt affordability would deteriorate to approximately the peak level seen during the 1980s, i.e., a ratio of interest to revenue of about 18%. The difference this time, however, is that the ratio would reach that level due to the size of the debt, whereas during the 1980s it was monetary policy that caused interest rates to be high. As monetary policy was eased, affordability improved.

Ça commence à sentir mauvais...   

Et les dernières émissions de bons du trésor ne se sont pas bien passées :

Seeking alpha sur une émission de bons ultra court terme à 4 semaines :

Something Very Strange Is Happening With Treasuries
seeking alpha, 24/02/2010 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
Roughly, 27% of the auction took place at the highest rate. This means nearly one third of the demand from competitive bidders (those who care about yield) came at the HIGHEST yield that was accepted. In plain terms, this alone tells you that investors want higher yields from Treasuries since nearly a full third of the debt issuance took place at the highest REQUIRED yield.

...yesterday’s auction featured MORE buys from Primary Dealers than almost any of those occurring in 2010. Remember, Primary Dealers HAVE to buy Treasuries. So to see them buying a high percentage of Treasuries at debt auctions means that few investors who can pick and choose what to buy are actually looking to buy US debt.

Of the remaining competitive buys (about $8.86 billion), only 32% came from Direct Bidders or those who bought debt directly from the Treasury: orders that can easily be tracked. The other 68% ($5.9 billion) came from Indirect Bidders: folks who we cannot track.

Et Karl Denninger du Market Ticker sur la dernière enchère pour des bons du trésor à 30 ans :

30 Year Auction: A Solid "F"
The Market Ticker, Karl Denninger, 11/02/2010 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
Bad. Actually, let's go worse than bad and call it what it is - by any definition this is just one step off from "Failed."

The more-worrying factor here is that we've got this "mystery" direct buyers out here again taking nearly 25% of the offered amount (who is bidding for that undisclosed?) and another 11% taken down by The Fed for the SOMA account.

Yet even with this Treasury had to pay up to get it to go and the bid-to-cover was anemic at best.

Given the Primary Dealer system we have in this country, any BTC under 2.0 is an effective fail. To get an auction that behaves in this sort of fashion, complete with mystery direct bidders and heavy SOMA (Fed) participation, yet Treasury has to pay up in the form of a significantly higher coupon is not a good sign at all.

Un bid to cover (nombre d'enchères faites / nombre d'enchères acceptées) de 2 et toujours ce mystérieux "direct buyer"...

Il y a comme un odeur de krach obligataire qui plane dans l'air...

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