lundi 22 février 2010

Europe's monetary union has become an instrument of deflation torture

Telegraph, Ambrose Evans Pritchard, 21/02/2010 (en Anglais texte en anglais)

L'ami Ambrose explique la perversité de l'euro qui a piégé les plus faibles et les empêche de dévaluer et nous fait une ode à la monétisation pour contrer la déflation (à rapprocher de Richard Koo sur la balance sheet recession, ou de Lordon qui parle de la monétisation de la dette).

Yet a decade of monetary union has created such a wide and self-perpetuating gap between North and South that everything in EU affairs is poisoned. German-Greek relations are the worst in my lifetime.

Nobel economist Paul Krugman said there is no point blaming any one country for this "Euromess". "Europe's policy elite bears the responsibility," he said. "It pushed hard for the single currency, brushing off warnings that exactly this sort of thing might happen, although even eurosceptics never imagined it would be this bad." Actually, we did, Professor. Thanks anyway.
Ha ben mince alors, les euro sceptiques avaient raison alors ? Et ils avaient décrit très exactement tout ce qui est en train de se produire ?

On nous aurait menti ? C'est surprenant quand même    Ca ne leur ressemble pas pourtant à nos éclairés et lumineux dirigeants ploutocrates et à leur propagande qu'on continue d'appeler journalistes par habitude ou par charité (pour paraphraser Lordon)...  

This is the story of Euroland. The North is in surplus, the South in deficit. Germany's current account surplus was 6.4pc of GDP in 2008, Holland's 7.5pc. Club Med deficits topped 14pc for Greece, and 10pc for Iberia. The gap has narrowed since but remains structural.

This is an intra-EMU version of China's surplus with the West. But at least China is doing something about it with a fiscal blitz and 30pc growth in the money supply.

Germany has banned budget deficits, implying a fiscal squeeze next year. IG Metall has agreed to a pay freeze, undercutting Spanish and Italian unions yet again. How can Club Med close a 30pc gap in unit labour costs against deflating Germany?

The European Central Bank is letting deflation run its course. Business credit is falling at a 2.3pc rate, while M3 money continues to contract. Frankfurt says demand for loans has slackened, so this does not matter. We will find out.

German growth fell to zero in the fourth quarter as state stimulus faded. Italy turned negative again. Spain never left recession. This recovery has `L-shaped' all over it.

That can happen only once France thinks the dangers of Laval policies outweigh the dangers of defying Bundesbank orthodoxy. Until then EMU will be an instrument of slow deflation torture.

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